Rule-Risk Discount
Rule-Risk Discount fades Polymarket binary markets where the resolution rule is ambiguous and the current market price does not reflect that ambiguity
What it does
Rule-Risk Discount fades Polymarket binary markets where the resolution rule is ambiguous and the current market price does not reflect that ambiguity risk. When a market's price implies high certainty but the resolution rule has a significant ambiguity score, the bot takes the opposite position to capture the mean-reversion when uncertainty is priced in.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Polymarket binary markets where resolution rule ambiguity score exceeds min_ambiguity_score and the market price underwe
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Ambiguity resolves faster than expected | The resolution oracle definitively resolves the ambiguous rule before the expected uncertainty is priced in, moving the market against the fade position. |
| Stale input data | Acting on stale signals for Rule-Risk Discount produces trades based on outdated market conditions, generating adverse fills. |
| KillSwitch not respected | Emitting OrderIntents while KillSwitch is active bypasses risk controls. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB book (mid, depth, spread) | ws_market | required | Read current market price and available depth for order sizing. |
| Market status (open/closed/resolved) | clob_public | required | Skip closed or resolved markets. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| Rule-Risk Discount analytics signal | internal (analytics engine) | required | Provides the core Rule-Risk Discount signal that drives trade decisions. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRD_TRADE | INFO | All gates passed. IOC OrderIntent emitted for Rule-Risk Discount. | Emit IOC OrderIntent. |
| RRD_MARGINAL | WARN | Edge is within the warning threshold; size reduced 50%. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| RRD_NO_EDGE | INFO | Edge below hard floor. Skipping. | Skip; emit sampled DecisionReport. |
| RRD_HARD_REJECT | HARD_REJECT | A critical gate condition blocked the trade (stale data, kill switch, or hard parameter breach). | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | Global kill switch is active. | Skip all markets; no OrderIntents emitted. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.rule-risk-discount. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| AI Frontier — release-day taker | frozen | last triggered 12m ago |
| NBA props — line-shop | demo-wired | last triggered 19m ago |
| Crypto Q2 — basket rebalance | frozen | last triggered 26m ago |
Showing 3 of 3 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →