Breakout-Follower
Breakout-Follower is a momentum strategy that enters Polymarket binary markets when a high-confidence news event causes a price breakout beyond config
What it does
Breakout-Follower is a momentum strategy that enters Polymarket binary markets when a high-confidence news event causes a price breakout beyond configurable Bollinger Band thresholds. It scales in across multiple steps and trails a stop using an ATR multiple, acting as the directional complement to Mean-Reversion Sniper.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Polymarket binary markets where a high-confidence news event has just landed and the price has broken out beyond the Bol
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Low-confidence news signal | Entering on weak or ambiguous news causes the trade to mean-revert rather than sustain, resulting in a loss on each scale-in step. |
| Trail stop too tight | A trailing stop set too close to the current price gets triggered by normal volatility before the trend matures, cutting a profitable position prematurely. |
| No exit discipline on reversal | Without an ATR-based stop, a breakout that fails can become a runaway adverse position as the market reverts toward its pre-news price. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB price and depth | ws_market | required | Detect Bollinger Band breakout; compute entry price and available depth. |
| Market status (open, resolved) | clob_public | required | Skip resolved or closed markets. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| News materiality signal (confidence, direction) | internal (news feed adapter) | required | Gate entry on news_confidence_min; determine breakout direction. |
| ATR (average true range) per market | internal (volatility model) | required | Compute trailing stop distance as trail_atr_multiple * ATR. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| BREAKOUT_ENTRY | INFO | News confidence >= min, price beyond Bollinger Band. Scale-in step 1 OrderIntent emitted. | Emit IOC OrderIntent step 1. |
| BREAKOUT_TRAIL_STOP | INFO | Price reversed beyond trail_atr_multiple * ATR from peak. Exit OrderIntent emitted. | Emit exit IOC OrderIntent. |
| BREAKOUT_LOW_CONFIDENCE | WARN | News confidence between 0.65 and 0.80; scale-in size halved. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| BREAKOUT_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_FLOOR | HARD_REJECT | News confidence below 0.50 hard floor. | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | Global kill switch is active. | Skip all markets; no OrderIntents emitted. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.breakout-follower. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| AI Frontier — release-day taker | frozen | last triggered 42m ago |
| NBA props — line-shop | demo-wired | last triggered 2m ago |
Showing 2 of 2 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →