OperatorRun scenario stress tests against the live book and see the projected damage.When: Before major events (elections, Fed days, sports finals).
Details
What this page is forRun scenario stress tests against the live book and see the projected damage.
When to use itBefore major events (elections, Fed days, sports finals).
Risk — Stress Views
Synthetic stress scenarios against the current book — not a forecast, sizing aid only.
Stress test is synthetic / not a forecast
Stress scenarios replay recorded book snapshots under simulated conditions. No real orders are placed. All output is labelled synthetic and does not imply any production risk metric.Polymarket CLOB halt
Simulates a total CLOB WS outage — all book data goes stale
halt_duration_min=30, stale_threshold_s=0
ETH chain reorg 6-block
Simulates a 6-block Polygon reorg invalidating recent tx hashes
reorg_depth=6, affected_markets=all
Senate-flip shock
Sudden 30-point swing in US_ELECT_2028_A cluster probability
swing_bps=3000, cluster=US_ELECT_2028_A
Fed surprise cut 75bps
Fed funds rate cut larger than market implied — FED_RATES shock
rate_delta_bps=-75, cluster=FED_RATES
NBA Finals upset
Heavy favourite loses Game 7 — SPORTS_NBA rebalance required
upset_prob_shift=0.85, market=nba-finals-2026
AI hype cycle spike
Frontier model announcement causes AI_FRONTIER vol spike ×3
vol_multiplier=3.0, cluster=AI_FRONTIER
Last run results — Senate-flip shock (run 2026-04-28 11:02)
Synthetic output · not a forecast
Envelopes generated
184
Hard rejects
67
Reject rate
36.4%
Kill switches tripped
2
| Stage | Rejects | Top reason code |
|---|---|---|
| Risk: Kill switch | 12 | RISK_KILLSWITCH_TRIPPED |
| Risk: Exposure guard | 28 | RISK_EXPOSURE_CAP_HIT |
| Risk: Drawdown guard | 18 | RISK_DRAWDOWN_TRIGGERED |
| Exec: Smart router | 9 | EXEC_ROUTE_CTFV2_TIMEOUT |