ResolutionCurveTrader
ResolutionCurveTrader models the expected time-path of a Polymarket binary market's probability from the current moment to resolution, then trades whe
What it does
ResolutionCurveTrader models the expected time-path of a Polymarket binary market's probability from the current moment to resolution, then trades when the market price deviates significantly from the model's projected curve. It captures mispricing in the temporal dimension rather than just the endpoint.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Polymarket binary markets where the time-path probability model diverges from the CLOB price by more than divergence_ent
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Model curve mis-calibrated for event type | If the probability curve template is wrong for the market category (e.g. sudden-event vs. gradual), the model consistently trades against the market's rational path. |
| Stale input data | Acting on stale signals for ResolutionCurveTrader produces trades based on outdated market conditions, generating adverse fills. |
| KillSwitch not respected | Emitting OrderIntents while KillSwitch is active bypasses risk controls. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB book (mid, depth, spread) | ws_market | required | Read current market price and available depth for order sizing. |
| Market status (open/closed/resolved) | clob_public | required | Skip closed or resolved markets. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| ResolutionCurveTrader analytics signal | internal (analytics engine) | required | Provides the core ResolutionCurveTrader signal that drives trade decisions. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCT_TRADE | INFO | All gates passed. IOC OrderIntent emitted for ResolutionCurveTrader. | Emit IOC OrderIntent. |
| RCT_MARGINAL | WARN | Edge is within the warning threshold; size reduced 50%. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| RCT_NO_EDGE | INFO | Edge below hard floor. Skipping. | Skip; emit sampled DecisionReport. |
| RCT_HARD_REJECT | HARD_REJECT | A critical gate condition blocked the trade (stale data, kill switch, or hard parameter breach). | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | Global kill switch is active. | Skip all markets; no OrderIntents emitted. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.resolutioncurvetrader. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Rates — surprise drift | frozen | last triggered 44m ago |
| AI Frontier — release-day taker | frozen | last triggered 4m ago |
Showing 2 of 2 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →