Resolution Fair-Value
Resolution Fair-Value detects Polymarket binary markets that are close to resolution and priced away from their fair value (e.
What it does
Resolution Fair-Value detects Polymarket binary markets that are close to resolution and priced away from their fair value (e.g. trading at ¢96 when the outcome is virtually certain). It emits an IOC OrderIntent to trade toward fair value on unambiguous markets whose oracle signal is clean and within resolution window.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Near-resolution Polymarket binary markets where the outcome is derivable from an authoritative source but the CLOB price
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Ambiguous resolution rule | A market that appears certain may resolve 'N/A' or be disputed. Trading on assumed certainty creates a position that resolves against expectations. |
| Oracle data stale near resolution | Oracle snapshots have a freshness window; a stale snapshot near resolution may show apparent certainty when the underlying data has moved. |
| UMA dispute window not respected | A winning position can be disputed and reversed within the 2-hour challenge window. Ignoring open disputes creates timing risk. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB mid-price and depth | ws_market | required | Measure divergence from estimated fair value. |
| Market metadata (resolution source, end time, status) | clob_public | required | Verify oracle source is clean, resolution is imminent, and market is open. |
| UMA dispute status | onchain | required | Check for open disputes before trading near resolution. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| Oracle signal / resolution tracker output | internal (resolution tracker) | required | Derive fair-value probability from authoritative resolution source. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| RFV_EDGE_TRADE | INFO | edge_bps >= min_edge_bps, oracle clean, no dispute. IOC OrderIntent emitted. | Emit IOC OrderIntent. |
| RFV_NO_EDGE | INFO | edge_bps < 20 bps hard floor. Price is sufficiently close to fair value. | Skip; emit sampled DecisionReport. |
| RFV_EDGE_MARGINAL | WARN | edge_bps between 20 and 50 bps; size reduced 50%. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| RFV_ORACLE_NOT_CLEAN | HARD_REJECT | Oracle data is stale or a UMA dispute is open. | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| RFV_AMBIGUOUS_SOURCE | HARD_REJECT | Resolution rule parsing confidence is not at maximum. | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.resolution-fair-value. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| NBA props — line-shop | demo-wired | last triggered 43m ago |
Showing 1 of 1 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →