NarrativeCrowdingFade
NarrativeCrowdingFade detects Polymarket binary markets where social attention and narrative momentum have pushed prices above the statistical base ra
What it does
NarrativeCrowdingFade detects Polymarket binary markets where social attention and narrative momentum have pushed prices above the statistical base rate. When attention Z-score and price drift signal crowding, the bot fades the move — taking the opposite position to capture reversion toward the base rate.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Polymarket binary markets where attention Z-score >= min_attention_zscore and price drift from base rate >= min_drift_bp
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| News is genuinely paradigm-shifting | If the crowded narrative reflects real new information rather than sentiment overshoot, the fade position loses as the market price correctly adjusts to the new fundamental. |
| Stale input data | Acting on stale signals for NarrativeCrowdingFade produces trades based on outdated market conditions, generating adverse fills. |
| KillSwitch not respected | Emitting OrderIntents while KillSwitch is active bypasses risk controls. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB book (mid, depth, spread) | ws_market | required | Read current market price and available depth for order sizing. |
| Market status (open/closed/resolved) | clob_public | required | Skip closed or resolved markets. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| NarrativeCrowdingFade analytics signal | internal (analytics engine) | required | Provides the core NarrativeCrowdingFade signal that drives trade decisions. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCF_TRADE | INFO | All gates passed. IOC OrderIntent emitted for NarrativeCrowdingFade. | Emit IOC OrderIntent. |
| NCF_MARGINAL | WARN | Edge is within the warning threshold; size reduced 50%. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| NCF_NO_EDGE | INFO | Edge below hard floor. Skipping. | Skip; emit sampled DecisionReport. |
| NCF_HARD_REJECT | HARD_REJECT | A critical gate condition blocked the trade (stale data, kill switch, or hard parameter breach). | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | Global kill switch is active. | Skip all markets; no OrderIntents emitted. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.narrativecrowdingfade. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| US Elections — sentiment fade | demo-wired | last triggered 25m ago |
| BTC weekly — close-aware quotes | demo-wired | last triggered 32m ago |
Showing 2 of 2 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →