Dispute-Risk Pricing
Dispute-Risk Pricing identifies Polymarket markets affected by UMA dispute uncertainty where the current price does not reflect the true resolution pr
What it does
Dispute-Risk Pricing identifies Polymarket markets affected by UMA dispute uncertainty where the current price does not reflect the true resolution probability given the dispute risk. The bot buys positions that appear mispriced due to dispute-inflated uncertainty, but only when the resolution-rule reading is unambiguous and the parser confidence is at maximum.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Polymarket binary markets currently under UMA dispute where the rule parser confidence is at maximum and the current CLO
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Rule reading changes during dispute window | If the resolution rule interpretation changes after entry, the position is now directionally wrong and cannot be safely exited at the original thesis. |
| Stale input data | Acting on stale signals for Dispute-Risk Pricing produces trades based on outdated market conditions, generating adverse fills. |
| KillSwitch not respected | Emitting OrderIntents while KillSwitch is active bypasses risk controls. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB book (mid, depth, spread) | ws_market | required | Read current market price and available depth for order sizing. |
| Market status (open/closed/resolved) | clob_public | required | Skip closed or resolved markets. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| Dispute-Risk Pricing analytics signal | internal (analytics engine) | required | Provides the core Dispute-Risk Pricing signal that drives trade decisions. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| DRP_TRADE | INFO | All gates passed. IOC OrderIntent emitted for Dispute-Risk Pricing. | Emit IOC OrderIntent. |
| DRP_MARGINAL | WARN | Edge is within the warning threshold; size reduced 50%. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| DRP_NO_EDGE | INFO | Edge below hard floor. Skipping. | Skip; emit sampled DecisionReport. |
| DRP_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_FLOOR | HARD_REJECT | Parser confidence below 0.70 hard floor. | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| DRP_CONTRADICTION_HALT | HARD_REJECT | Oracle signal contradicts current rule reading. All trading on market halted. | Skip; no OrderIntent; log alert. |
| DRP_HARD_REJECT | HARD_REJECT | A critical gate condition blocked the trade (stale data, kill switch, or hard parameter breach). | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | Global kill switch is active. | Skip all markets; no OrderIntents emitted. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.dispute-risk-pricing. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| NBA props — line-shop | demo-wired | last triggered 25m ago |
| Crypto Q2 — basket rebalance | frozen | last triggered 32m ago |
| US Elect — book-builder | demo-wired | last triggered 39m ago |
Showing 3 of 3 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →