Cross-Venue Arb
Cross-Venue Arb identifies price divergences between Polymarket and external prediction markets (Kalshi, PredictIt) that share an identical resolution
What it does
Cross-Venue Arb identifies price divergences between Polymarket and external prediction markets (Kalshi, PredictIt) that share an identical resolution source, then emits an OrderIntent to trade the cheaper leg on Polymarket. Both venues must resolve via the same authority; any mismatch blocks the trade.
Pipeline placement
Applies to: Polymarket binary markets where an identical resolution source matches a live Kalshi or PredictIt contract and the price
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Resolution source mismatch | Two venues may look identical but resolve differently. Trading on a false parity creates an unhedged directional position rather than an arbitrage. |
| Stale external venue data | Cross-venue prices update asynchronously. Stale Kalshi or PredictIt snapshots produce phantom gaps that evaporate before the order lands. |
| Fee drag understated | Both venues charge fees; if min_gap_bps_after_fees is set too low, ostensible arb edges are consumed by combined fee drag leaving no profit. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket CLOB book (mid, spread, depth) | ws_market | required | Compute Polymarket mid-price for gap calculation. |
| Market metadata (resolution source, status) | clob_public | required | Verify resolution source matches external venue before acting. |
| Market open/closed status | clob_public | required | Skip closed or resolved markets. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Abort all intent emission if KillSwitch active. |
| External venue price snapshots (Kalshi, PredictIt) | internal (cross-venue adapter) | required | Compute price gap between venues for the same event. |
| Builder code bytes32 | internal config | required | Injected into builder field on every signed V2 OrderIntent. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Alpha Strategy
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core — Strategy pod
Capital impact
Direct
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| CROSS_VENUE_EDGE_TRADE | INFO | Gap >= min_gap_bps_after_fees, sources match, pair approved. IOC OrderIntent emitted. | Emit IOC OrderIntent. |
| CROSS_VENUE_NO_EDGE | INFO | Net gap_bps below 30 bps hard floor after fee deduction. | Skip; emit sampled DecisionReport. |
| CROSS_VENUE_EDGE_MARGINAL | WARN | Gap between 30 and 80 bps; trade marginal; size reduced 50%. | Emit at 50% size; log warning. |
| CROSS_VENUE_SOURCE_MISMATCH | HARD_REJECT | Resolution sources differ between Polymarket and external venue. | Skip; no OrderIntent. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | Global kill switch is active. | Skip all markets; no OrderIntents emitted. |
Related bots in Strategy
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference strat.cross-venue-arb. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| AI Frontier — release-day taker | frozen | last triggered 44m ago |
Showing 1 of 1 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Strategy bots does NOT sign, route, or directly submit orders to the chain. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →