ReviewerVerify deterministic replay parity — that yesterday’s decisions reproduce bit-for-bit from the canonical inputs.When: Before any rollout-rung promotion, after any model change, or when investigating an incident.
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What this page is forVerify deterministic replay parity — that yesterday’s decisions reproduce bit-for-bit from the canonical inputs.
When to use itBefore any rollout-rung promotion, after any model change, or when investigating an incident.
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Replay Parity — live and replay paths must match
Every order envelope is replayed against the canonical event log. Replay parity is green when book_hash, q_exec, and net_edge match within tolerance. Replay parity gates every promotion on the rollout ladder.
Hash parity (24h)
100%
1,284 / 1,284 envelopes
q_exec drift
2.4 bps
avg abs · tolerance 10 bps
net_edge drift
1.8 bps
avg abs · tolerance 5 bps
Brier score
0.214
90-day rolling · lower better
Max drawdown (synthetic)
-3.2%
replay only · not a forecast
Replay jobs (24h)
8
all completed
| replay_job_id | Strategy | Window | Envelopes | Hash parity | q_exec drift | Brier | Max DD | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
rpl-01JG1Z3F2H | Election Momentum | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 412 | 100% | 1.9 bps | 0.198 | -2.1% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YYR4M | Macro Drawdown Guard | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 281 | 100% | 2.7 bps | 0.223 | -3.2% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YQ8X2 | NBA Momentum Alpha | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 152 | 100% | 3.1 bps | 0.231 | -1.8% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YP3M5 | Fed Rate Monitor | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 198 | 100% | 2.2 bps | 0.207 | -2.4% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YN1K2 | Smart Router Arb | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 88 | 100% | 2.0 bps | 0.218 | -1.4% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YM8J1 | Exposure Guard Suite | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 62 | 100% | 2.8 bps | 0.211 | -2.0% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YL7H0 | Drawdown Sentinel | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 71 | 100% | 2.5 bps | 0.219 | -2.3% | PARITY |
rpl-01JG1YK5F9 | Compliance Gate Alpha | 2026-05-12 09:00 → 14:48 | 20 | 100% | 1.6 bps | 0.196 | -0.9% | PARITY |
What this page is for
Replay parity (PDF pg 13) is how we prove the live decision path is reproducible from the canonical event log. Every order envelope is re-run against the historical book, signals, and execution engine. Ifbook_hash, q_exec, and net_edge all match within tolerance, parity is green. Drift outside tolerance auto-pauses the strategy and surfaces on the Incident Board. Brier score and max drawdown shown here are replay-only synthetic metrics — not a forecast, not live PnL. Sharpe ratio and win-rate are intentionally omitted.