OperatorInspect pairwise market correlations to size correlated exposure safely and spot arbitrage opportunities.When: Before adding a correlated market or when risk.correlationshockguard fires.

Details

What this page is forInspect pairwise market correlations to size correlated exposure safely and spot arbitrage opportunities.

When to use itBefore adding a correlated market or when risk.correlationshockguard fires.

Powered byintel.macro_sentiment risk.exposureguard

Correlation Analysis — Pairwise market relationships powered by intel.crossmarketgraph

Graph of semantically equivalent and logically linked Polymarket markets. Read-only — used by strat.cross-market-arb, strat.sum-to-one-arb, strat.neg-risk-sum-arb, and risk.correlationshockguard. | Registry → | Import →

CLUSTER

METHOD

LOOKBACK

THRESHOLD 0.55

Markets in cluster

US_ELECT_2028_A

Pairs analyzed

n(n-1)/2

Strong corr (>0.75)

COMPLEMENTARY

Neg corr (<-0.5)

inverse pairs

Dup candidates (>0.92)

SAME_EVENT pending

Last graph rebuild

3m ago

intel.crossmarketgraph

Correlation Heatmap — US_ELECT_2028_A cluster (7 × 7)

Hybrid method · 30d lookback · threshold 0.55 · hover cell for pair label · diagonal = 1.00

<-0.7 -0.7..-0.3 -0.3..+0.3 +0.3..+0.7 >0.7 Diagonal (1.00)

Market	Dem 2028	Rep 2028	Senate 26	House 26	UK Elec	SCOTUS	Trade War
Dem 2028	1.00	-0.81	0.87	0.74	0.22	0.34	0.51
Rep 2028	-0.81	1.00	-0.62	-0.57	-0.18	-0.28	-0.43
Senate 26	0.87	-0.62	1.00	0.79	0.19	0.41	0.44
House 26	0.74	-0.57	0.79	1.00	0.11	0.36	0.38
UK Elec	0.22	-0.18	0.19	0.11	1.00	0.14	0.07
SCOTUS	0.34	-0.28	0.41	0.36	0.14	1.00	0.29
Trade War	0.51	-0.43	0.44	0.38	0.07	0.29	1.00

Strong Pair Analysis — Top 12 correlations

Ordered by |correlation|. Click bot chips to open bot detail pages.

Market A	Market B	Corr	Method	Relation type	Edge confidence	Used by	Trade ideas
Dem 2028	Rep 2028	-0.81	Hybrid	COMPLEMENTARY	0.94	strat.cross-market-arb	12
Dem 2028	Senate 26	+0.87	Pearson	COMPLEMENTARY	0.91	strat.sum-to-one-arb	9
Rep 2028	Senate 26	-0.62	Pearson	COMPLEMENTARY	0.88	strat.cross-market-arb	7
Dem 2028	House 26	+0.74	Cosine	COMPLEMENTARY	0.86	strat.sum-to-one-arb	6
Rep 2028	House 26	-0.57	Spearman	COMPLEMENTARY	0.83	strat.cross-market-arb	5
Senate 26	House 26	+0.79	Hybrid	COMPLEMENTARY	0.89	strat.sum-to-one-arb strat.neg-risk-sum-arb	8
Dem 2028	Trade War	+0.51	Cosine	NEG_RISK_SIBLING	0.72	strat.neg-risk-sum-arb	4
Rep 2028	Trade War	-0.43	Cosine	NEG_RISK_SIBLING	0.69	strat.neg-risk-sum-arb	3
Dem 2028	SCOTUS	+0.34	Spearman	SAME_EVENT	0.97	disc.duplicatemarketdetector	11
Senate 26	Trade War	+0.44	Pearson	COMPLEMENTARY	0.71	strat.cross-market-arb	5
House 26	Trade War	+0.38	Pearson	COMPLEMENTARY	0.68	strat.cross-market-arb	4
SCOTUS	Senate 26	+0.41	Hybrid	COMPLEMENTARY	0.74	strat.sum-to-one-arb	3

Suggested Actions

Auto-generated from edge types and correlation thresholds — demo-wired ≠ production-live

1 pair flagged — SAME_EVENT

Dem 2028 ↔ SCOTUS — cosine 0.97. Review for duplicate market merge before strategy layer sees both.

disc.duplicatemarketdetector → review

3 pairs — sum-to-one-arb candidates

Dem↔Senate, House↔Senate, SCOTUS↔Senate all corr > 0.85 — COMPLEMENTARY edges in graph. Sum-to-one probabilities > 1.05 detected.

strat.sum-to-one-arb →

2 NEG_RISK_SIBLING pairs

Dem 2028 ↔ Trade War and Rep 2028 ↔ Trade War — correlated through neg-risk bundle. Sum of outcome tokens > 1.0.

strat.neg-risk-sum-arb →

1 pair — corr < -0.7 hedge

Dem 2028 ↔ Rep 2028 at −0.81 — strong inverse. Hedge candidate for cross-market-arb mean-reversion.

strat.cross-market-arb →

Recent Graph Events

Node additions, edge promotions/demotions, and confidence threshold crossings. Read-only.

3m ago INTEL_GRAPH_NODE_ADDED

Graph rebuild complete — 28 nodes, 47 edges, 5 SAME_EVENT, 14 COMPLEMENTARY, 8 NEG_RISK_SIBLING

18m ago DISC_DUPLICATE_DETECTED

SAME_EVENT edge promoted: Dem 2028 ↔ SCOTUS — confidence crossed 0.92 threshold

1h ago INTEL_GRAPH_EDGE_ADDED

4 new edges added after FED_RATES cluster import (Fed Q3 + CPI + NFP + Brent)

2h ago INTEL_GRAPH_EDGE_ADDED

Edge demoted: SOL $80B ↔ SOL $100B — confidence fell below 0.65 (0.61)

5h ago INTEL_GRAPH_NODE_ADDED

3 nodes added from AI_FRONTIER Browser import batch — edges built to existing cluster

9h ago DISC_DUPLICATE_DETECTED

Duplicate candidate flagged: NBA Finals 2026 Alt ↔ NBA Finals 2026 winner — cosine 0.93

14h ago INTEL_GRAPH_EDGE_ADDED

Confidence threshold crossing: Trade War ↔ Dem 2028 promoted NEG_RISK_SIBLING (0.71 → 0.72)

1d ago INTEL_GRAPH_NODE_ADDED

Full graph rebuild triggered by 4-market batch import to US_ELECT_2028_A

Bots in this workflow

intel.crossmarketgraph — builds & maintains the graph intel.marketontologybuilder — cluster assignment disc.duplicatemarketdetector — SAME_EVENT detection strat.cross-market-arb — reads inverse pairs strat.sum-to-one-arb — reads COMPLEMENTARY edges strat.neg-risk-sum-arb — reads NEG_RISK_SIBLING edges risk.correlationshockguard — caps correlated exposure

Graph parameters: cluster_threshold=0.85 · rebuild_interval_s=300 · max_edges_per_node=20

Why this matters

The correlation graph is the foundation for three arbitrage strategies and one risk guardrail. Operators need visibility into what CrossMarketGraph “knows” to understand why strategies enter or avoid certain pairs. The SAME_EVENT detection surface prevents double-exposure; the NEG_RISK_SIBLING surface enables precise neg-risk hedging. View Registry to manage market inventory, or Browser Import to add new markets.

Polytraders Operator UX Mock · INTERNAL · demo-wired ≠ production-live · the plan · reason codes · shadow-mode pipeline