OperatorWhat each bot thinks the real odds are, and how often it turns out to be right. Compare its guess against the market price to see where it thinks there's an edge.When: When edge_bps looks off, when a suppression chip lights up on the blotter, or when a probabilistic model is rolling forward.
Details
What this page is forInspect the
strategy_score stream for strategies that declare score_type=fair_value — which signals fed each market, calibration error, suppression status.When to use itWhen edge_bps looks off, when a suppression chip lights up on the blotter, or when a probabilistic model is rolling forward.
Fair Value — p̂, bounds, and the suppression rule
Per-market fair-value snapshots from the signal engine. p̂ is the model’s point estimate; LB/UB are the uncertainty bounds; suppression_reason explains why an estimate isn’t tradeable.
fair_value = p̂ ± uncertainty_buffer · bounded by [LB, UB] · suppressed when LB < 0 OR book_hash mismatch OR news_window=open
model_version · calibration_version on every row
| Market | Mid | p̂ | LB | UB | Buffer | Model | Calibration | Suppression |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 US Senate control | 0.491 | 0.512 | 0.498 | 0.526 | 0.014 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | — |
| Fed funds rate · Q2 2026 | 0.618 | 0.638 | 0.624 | 0.652 | 0.014 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | — |
| Fed funds rate · Q3 2026 | 0.589 | 0.612 | 0.594 | 0.630 | 0.018 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | — |
| NBA Finals 2026 winner | 0.222 | 0.241 | 0.228 | 0.254 | 0.013 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | — |
| BTC > $150k by EOY 2026 | 0.418 | 0.434 | 0.408 | 0.460 | 0.026 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | SPREAD_WIDE |
| Next frontier model released | 0.531 | 0.554 | 0.512 | 0.596 | 0.042 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | BOOK_STALE |
| UEFA Champions League 2026 | 0.291 | 0.275 | 0.262 | 0.288 | 0.013 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | — |
| Trade war escalation · Q2 | 0.351 | 0.374 | 0.342 | 0.406 | 0.032 | fv-v1.4.2 | calib-2026-05-09 | NEWS_WINDOW_OPEN |
What this page is for
Every signal-driven order starts here.p̂ is the fair-value point estimate from the signal engine (PDF pg 8). LB/UB are the 90% credible bounds. uncertainty_buffer shrinks the tradeable region around p̂. model_version and calibration_version are pinned per row so backtests are reproducible. When the suppression rule fires, no envelope is sent. All numbers synthetic — not a forecast.