⚠ INTERNAL — Operator UX mock · Design preview of V2 development path · demo-wired ≠ production-live · back to dev guide
Polygon · pUSD 10
📓 Developer Guide 📋 Reason Codes 📈 Shadow Mode
JD John Doe · Admin

SettlementExposureGuard

risk.settlementexposureguard
Risk Guardrail planned Planned demo-wired

SettlementExposureGuard tracks how much pUSD is committed in markets that share the same UMA resolution window and blocks or downsizes new orders that

What it does

SettlementExposureGuard tracks how much pUSD is committed in markets that share the same UMA resolution window and blocks or downsizes new orders that would push the concurrent settlement exposure above the configured ceiling. It prevents the user from having more equity at risk in a single 2-hour UMA settlement window than they can afford to lose if all markets in that window resolve adversely.

Pipeline placement

runs after: Strategy OrderIntent SettlementExposureGuard runs before: ExecutionPlan emit

Applies to: Every OrderIntent — caps simultaneous settlement resolution risk by limiting how much equity is locked in markets that c

Why it matters

If this failsConsequence
Multiple markets resolving in same UMA windowMarkets resolving in the same 2-hour UMA window create a concentration of settlement risk; an adverse outcome across all of them results in simultaneous losses the user did not anticipate.
Worked example
Setup: Strategy holds 9,000 pUSD on YES at 0.78 in market 0x12e (resolves in 14h). It now wants to add 4,000 pUSD on YES at the same market.
Without bot: PortfolioGuard checks current notional only and approves the add. At resolution, if YES settles, the position pays out; if NO, the loss is the full 9,000 + 4,000 × (1 − 0.78) = 11,880 pUSD. The team learns at resolution that single-market settlement exposure exceeded the monthly budget.
With bot: SettlementExposureGuard projects the worst-case post-resolution loss for the proposed position, finds it crosses the per-market hard cap of 10,000 pUSD, and votes RESHAPE_REQUIRED to clamp the new add to 2,500 pUSD.
No cap on concurrent settlement exposureWithout a settlement window cap, strategies can inadvertently concentrate the majority of the portfolio in a single 2-hour settlement batch.

Inputs

Polymarket inputs

InputSourceRequiredUse
Market resolution end_date and UMA challenge window metadatagammarequiredGroup open positions by their UMA resolution window (2-hour buckets) to compute concurrent settlement exposure.
Open position notional by marketclob_publicrequiredSum the pUSD notional for all positions in each UMA window bucket.

Internal inputs

InputSourceRequiredUse
Settlement window exposure config (max concurrent pUSD)internalrequiredLoad the per-window exposure ceiling.
KillSwitch active flagKillSwitchrequiredIf active, reject immediately.

Authority

What this bot is permitted to do

Veto Reshape

State

Readiness

Planned

Status

planned

Class

Guardrail

Default mode

planned

Developer owner

Polytraders core — Risk pod

Capital impact

Direct

Reason codes emitted

CodeSeverityMeaningAction
KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVEHARD_REJECTGlobal kill switch active.Immediate HARD_REJECT.
SETTLEMENT_EXPOSURE_EXCEEDEDRESHAPEAdding the intent to the UMA window bucket would exceed the ceiling.RESHAPE if safe_size > 0; else HARD_REJECT.
SETTLEMENT_EXPOSURE_APPROACHINGWARNWindow exposure is above warn_pct of the ceiling.Attach WARN annotation; APPROVE.
SETTLEMENT_EXPOSURE_DATA_UNAVAILABLEHARD_REJECTGamma market metadata or position data unavailable.HARD_REJECT (fail-closed).

Used by

Reverse index — strategies that currently reference risk.settlementexposureguard. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.

StrategyStateActivity
Fed Rates — surprise driftfrozenlast triggered 25m ago
AI Frontier — release-day takerfrozenlast triggered 32m ago

Showing 2 of 2 · demo-wired ≠ production-live

Why this matters

Risk Guardrail bots does NOT propose intents or sign orders; only permits or blocks. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →
Polytraders Operator UX Mock · INTERNAL · demo-wired ≠ production-live · the plan · reason codes · shadow-mode pipeline
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