Wallet Flow Classifier
intel.wallet-flow-classifier
Intelligence
planned
Spec started
frozen
Score on-chain wallets on historical edge over a long window — emitted as a feature, never as a copy-trade signal.
What it does
Score on-chain wallets on historical edge over a long window — emitted as a feature, never as a copy-trade signal.
Pipeline placement
runs after: —
→
Wallet Flow Classifier
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runs before: —
Applies to: —
Why it matters
| If this fails | Consequence |
|---|---|
| Wallet behaviour treated as a copy-trade signal | Naively echoing 'smart money' wallets is the textbook way to lose money — the apparent edge is survivor bias, the real wallets front-run, and the implementation amounts to copy-trading. Emitting a feature with explicit non-trigger guidance prevents that misuse. Worked example Setup: A strategy author wires a new feature: `if any wallet in top_50_pnl placed an order in the last 60s, mirror it`. They run it for a week. Without bot: Three of those wallets are MEV bots that front-run the public mempool. The strategy posts orders 800 ms after them and pays the spread the wallets just collected. Net effect: the strategy is the exit liquidity for the wallets it is trying to follow. With bot: Wallet Flow Classifier emits `{wallet: 0xab.., score: 0.72, primary_trigger_allowed: false, window: '180d'}`. The strategy must consume the score as a feature blended with its own thesis — not as a primary trigger — and no copy-trade behaviour is permitted by contract. |
| Strategies build their own wallet scorers, inconsistently | Without a shared classifier, every strategy author writes a slightly different version. The library ends up with three inconsistent scores, none of them auditable. |
| No long-window context for short-term flows | A wallet's 24-hour activity is meaningless without its multi-month history. Centralising the long-window score gives all consumers the same baseline and prevents recency-driven misclassifications. |
| Compliance unable to flag suspicious counterparties | Sanctions and abuse reviews need a structured score per wallet. The classifier provides one consistent input that ComplianceGate and Governance can both read. |
Inputs
Polymarket inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CTFExchangeV2 OrderFilled events from Polygon on-chain | onchain | required | Primary source of wallet fill data for flow classification. |
| Historical wallet fill patterns | data | optional | Supplement recent fills with historical context for better classification accuracy. |
Internal inputs
| Input | Source | Required | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| KillSwitch active flag | KillSwitch | required | Suppress all emissions when KillSwitch is active. |
Authority
What this bot is permitted to do
Read-only
State
Readiness
Spec started
Status
planned
Class
Signal Service
Default mode
shadow_only
Developer owner
Polytraders core
Capital impact
Indirect
Reason codes emitted
| Code | Severity | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| WALLETFLOWCLASSIFIER_LARGE_FLOW | INFO | Wallet classified as institutional based on pUSD volume exceeding institutional_threshold. | Emit ObservationReport with flow_label=institutional; strategies may treat as high-signal. |
| WALLETFLOWCLASSIFIER_ARBITRAGE_PATTERN | WARN | Wallet fill pattern matches arbitrage heuristic (multi-market simultaneous fills). | Emit ObservationReport with flow_label=arbitrage; strategies apply reduced directional weight. |
| STALE_DATA | WARN | RPC provider unresponsive; on-chain fills may be stale. | Skip classification for this block; alert on-call if persists. |
| KILL_SWITCH_ACTIVE | HARD_REJECT | KillSwitch active; all WalletFlowClassifier emissions suppressed. | Continue classification internally; suppress ObservationReport emissions. |
Related bots in Intelligence
Used by
Reverse index — strategies that currently reference intel.wallet-flow-classifier. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.
| Strategy | State | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| NBA H2H — moneyline market-make | demo-wired | last triggered 32m ago |
| US Elections — sentiment fade | demo-wired | last triggered 39m ago |
| BTC weekly — close-aware quotes | demo-wired | last triggered 46m ago |
Showing 3 of 3 · demo-wired ≠ production-live
Why this matters
Intelligence bots does NOT propose, veto, sign, or execute any trade. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →