ExperimentTracker

gov.experimenttracker

Governance & Ops planned Spec started frozen

ExperimentTracker manages shadow and limited-live A/B experiments, records matched-pair samples, computes confidence intervals, and emits a drift sign

What it does

ExperimentTracker manages shadow and limited-live A/B experiments, records matched-pair samples, computes confidence intervals, and emits a drift signal to StrategyRegistry when a variant underperforms.

Pipeline placement

runs after: Shadow or limited-live deployment of a strategy variant → ExperimentTracker → runs before: StrategyRegistry promotion decision

Applies to: All strategies in shadow or limited-live experiment mode

Why it matters

If this fails	Consequence
No experiment tracking	Promotions are made without statistical evidence; regressions go undetected.
Auto-promote without human sign-off	A variant with a transient winning streak is promoted before significance is established.

Inputs

Polymarket inputs

Input	Source	Required	Use
None — ExperimentTracker consumes internal report bus data only	internal	optional	N/A

Internal inputs

Input	Source	Required	Use
Replay-tagged OperationsReport from shadow variant	gov.backtester	required	Populate matched-pair samples for the variant.
Live OperationsReport from control strategy	internal.report_bus	required	Baseline comparison for edge and fill quality.

Authority

What this bot is permitted to do

Explain

State

Readiness

Spec started

Status

planned

Class

Governance Service

Default mode

shadow_only

Developer owner

Polytraders core

Capital impact

Indirect

Reason codes emitted

Code	Severity	Meaning	Action
EXPERIMENT_STARTED	INFO	A new experiment was registered.	Log and emit OperationsReport.
EXPERIMENT_RESULT	INFO	Experiment concluded with a statistical verdict.	Emit OperationsReport; optionally trigger promotion flow.
EXPERIMENT_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES	WARN	Insufficient samples to declare a winner.	Continue sampling.
EXPERIMENT_LARGE_SPLIT_WARN	WARN	traffic_split_pct > 50%; high exposure to variant.	Emit WARN; require human sign-off.
EXPERIMENT_STALLED	WARN	Report bus unavailable; sampling paused.	Pause experiment; emit alert.

Related bots in Governance & Ops

gov.api_degradation_monitor gov.attributionrevenuereporter gov.backtester

Used by

Reverse index — strategies that currently reference gov.experimenttracker. If you change this bot's authority or reason codes, these strategies must re-pass shadow.

Strategy	State	Activity
NBA props — line-shop	demo-wired	last triggered 5m ago
Crypto Q2 — basket rebalance	frozen	last triggered 12m ago

Showing 2 of 2 · demo-wired ≠ production-live

Why this matters

Governance & Ops bots does NOT propose, approve, or block trades; only observes and reports. Understanding the authority boundary prevents misuse and makes promotion-gate reviews faster and more reliable. View raw spec JSON →

Polytraders Operator UX Mock · INTERNAL · demo-wired ≠ production-live · the plan · reason codes · shadow-mode pipeline