3.17 ResolutionCurveTrader

1. Bot Identity

2. Purpose

ResolutionCurveTrader models the expected time-path of a Polymarket binary market's probability from the current moment to resolution, then trades when the market price deviates significantly from the model's projected curve. It captures mispricing in the temporal dimension rather than just the endpoint.

3. Why This Bot Matters

• Model curve mis-calibrated for event type

  If the probability curve template is wrong for the market category (e.g. sudden-event vs. gradual), the model consistently trades against the market's rational path.

• Stale input data

  Acting on stale signals for ResolutionCurveTrader produces trades based on outdated market conditions, generating adverse fills.

• KillSwitch not respected

  Emitting OrderIntents while KillSwitch is active bypasses risk controls.

No worked examples on this bot yet. Worked examples are optional but strongly recommended — they turn an abstract failure mode into something a developer can verify in a fixture.

4. Required Polymarket Inputs

5. Required Internal Inputs

6. Parameter Guide

7. Detailed Parameter Instructions

{ "divergence_entry_bps": 150 }

if div_bps < params.hard: return skip('RCT_NO_DIVERGENCE')

{ "min_days_remaining": 3 }

if days_remaining < params.hard: return skip('RCT_RESOLUTION_TOO_CLOSE')

{ "exit_on_curve_revert": true }

if exit_on_curve_revert and div_bps < exit_threshold: emit exit

{ "max_position_per_market": 400 }

if params.max_position_per_market > params.hard: raise ConfigError('PARAMETER_CHANGE_REQUIRES_APPROVAL')

8. Default Configuration

{
  "bot_id": "strat.resolutioncurvetrader",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "mode": "shadow_only",
  "defaults": {
    "divergence_entry_bps": 150,
    "min_days_remaining": 3,
    "exit_on_curve_revert": true,
    "max_position_per_market": 400
  },
  "locked": {
    "divergence_entry_bps": {
      "min": 25
    },
    "min_days_remaining": {
      "min": 0
    },
    "max_position_per_market": {
      "min": 800
    }
  }
}

9. Implementation Flow

1. Check KillSwitch; if active, emit no OrderIntents.
2. FETCH ResolutionCurveTrader analytics signal from internal engine.
3. IF signal below hard floor: SKIP, emit sampled DecisionReport RCT_NO_EDGE.
4. FETCH clob_public market status; skip if closed or resolved.
5. FETCH ws_market book; compute current mid and available depth.
6. IF signal < warning threshold: WARN RCT_MARGINAL; reduce size 50%.
7. Compute order size = min(max_size_param, available_depth).
8. EMIT IOC OrderIntent with builder code.
9. EMIT DecisionReport with intent_emitted=true, reason=RCT_TRADE.

10. Reference Implementation

Pseudocode is language-agnostic. FETCH = read input. EMIT = produce output. IF/THEN/ELSE = decision. Translate directly to TypeScript, Python, Go, or Rust.

FUNCTION onSignalUpdate(market_id, signal):
  ks = FETCH internal.killswitch.status
  IF ks.active: RETURN

  // Hard floor gate
  IF signal.score < params.divergence_entry_bps_hard:
    IF random() < 0.01:
      EMIT DecisionReport(intent_emitted=false, reason='RCT_NO_EDGE')
    RETURN

  mkt = FETCH clob_public.GET('/markets/' + market_id)
  IF mkt.closed OR mkt.resolved: RETURN

  // Warning threshold check
  sizeMultiplier = 0.5 IF signal.score < params.divergence_entry_bps_warn ELSE 1.0
  IF sizeMultiplier < 1.0: WARN('RCT_MARGINAL')

  // Book snapshot
  book = FETCH ws_market.book(market_id)
  mid = (book.best_bid + book.best_ask) / 2
  depth = FETCH clob_public.depth(market_id)

  // Size computation
  orderSize = toPusdUnits(min(params.min_days_remaining * sizeMultiplier, depth.available))

  EMIT OrderIntent(market=market_id, outcome='YES', side='buy', price=mid,
                   size_pUSD=orderSize, tif='IOC', builder=internalBuilderCode)
  EMIT DecisionReport(intent_emitted=true, signal_score=signal.score,
                      reason='RCT_TRADE')

SDK calls used

• ws_market.subscribe('book', [market_id])
• fetchClobPublic('/markets/' + market_id)
• internal.analyticsEngine.signal(market_id)
• buildOrderTypedData(orderParams, {name:'CTFExchange', version:'2', chainId:137})
• internal.builder_code

Complexity: O(1) per signal update per market

11. Wire Examples

Input — what arrives on the wire

ResolutionCurveTrader analytics signal — internal (analytics engine)

{
  "market_id": "0xresoluti000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001",
  "signal_score": "0.75",
  "received_at_ms": 1746790800000
}

Output — what the bot emits

OrderIntent — ResolutionCurveTrader IOC buy YES

{
  "intent_id": "oi_01HRCT0000001A",
  "market_id": "0xresoluti000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001",
  "outcome": "YES",
  "side": "buy",
  "price": "0.540",
  "size_pUSD": "200.00",
  "tif": "IOC",
  "builder": {
    "code": "0x706f6c7974726164657273000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
    "fee_bps": 25
  },
  "decision": {
    "signal_score": 0.75,
    "reasons": [
      "RCT_TRADE"
    ]
  }
}

12. Decision Logic

13. Standard Decision Output

This bot returns a OrderIntent object. See OrderIntent schema.

{
  "intent_id": "oi_01HRCT0000001A",
  "trace_id": "tr_01HRCT000TR001",
  "market_id": "0xresoluti000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001",
  "outcome": "YES",
  "side": "buy",
  "price": "0.540",
  "size_pUSD": "200.00",
  "tif": "IOC",
  "post_only": false,
  "builder": {
    "code": "0x706f6c7974726164657273000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
    "fee_bps": 25
  },
  "negrisk_aware": false,
  "decision": {
    "signal_score": 0.75,
    "reasons": [
      "RCT_TRADE"
    ]
  },
  "comment": "fees are operator-set at match time in V2 \u2014 feeRateBps is NOT on the signed order"
}

14. Reason Codes

15. Metrics & Logs

Metrics emitted

Alerts

16. Developer Reporting

{
  "bot_id": "strat.resolutioncurvetrader",
  "market_id": "0xresoluti000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001",
  "signal_score": 0.75,
  "intent_emitted": true,
  "reason": "RCT_TRADE",
  "emitted_at_ms": 1746790800000
}

17. Plain-English Reporting

18. Failure-Mode Block

19. Failure-Injection Recipes

20. State & Persistence

Cold-start recovery

On cold start, signals rebuilt from next analytics engine poll.

21. Concurrency & Idempotency

22. Dependencies

Depends on (must run first)

Emits to (downstream consumers)

External services

23. Security Surfaces

Abuse vectors considered

• Signal injection to produce false ResolutionCurveTrader trades
• Order sizing parameter manipulation to exceed position limits

Mitigations

• ResolutionCurveTrader analytics signals sourced from authenticated internal engine only
• Hard limits on position size enforced before OrderIntent emission
• Builder code injected from secure internal config

24. Polymarket V2 Compatibility

API surfaces declared

Networks supported

25. Versioning & Migration

Migration history

26. Acceptance Tests

Unit Tests

Integration Tests

Property Tests

27. Operational Runbook

ResolutionCurveTrader incidents are typically stale analytics feeds or kill-switch activations. Hard-floor skips are normal.

On-call actions

Manual overrides

• —

Healthcheck

GET /internal/health/resolutioncurvetrader -> 200 if Analytics engine active; signal age < 60s; KillSwitch inactive.. Red: Analytics engine down or KillSwitch active..

28. Promotion Gates

A bot does not advance to the next readiness state until every gate below is green. Gates are observable from production data — no subjective sign-off.

Promote to Shadow

Promote to Limited live

Promote to General live

29. Developer Checklist

Ready-to-ship score: 27/27 sections complete · 100%